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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.